Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut in the top 5 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 73¢ · $315 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 100%
$315.49
-$29.34
79.9¢ → 73¢
-9% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 73%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Yesavg 78¢ | $196.56 | $184.44 | -$12.12 | 41% 3126-4493 (7619) |
 Haradwaith<$100 | Yesavg 86¢ | $99.61 | $84.56 | -$15.06 | 51% 40-38 (78) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Yesavg 73¢ | $24.82 | $24.82 | +$0 | 12% 22-156 (178) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Yesavg 80.3¢ | $23.84 | $21.67 | -$2.17 | 55% 581-483 (1064) |
Invested
$196.56
Value
$184.44
PnL
-$12.12
Record
41%
3126-4493 (7619)
Haradwaith<$100Invested
$99.61
Value
$84.56
PnL
-$15.06
Record
51%
40-38 (78)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$24.82
Value
$24.82
PnL
+$0
Record
12%
22-156 (178)
Invested
$23.84
Value
$21.67
PnL
-$2.17
Record
55%
581-483 (1064)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.