Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut in the top 3 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (20%) · Yes at 85¢ · $335 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 20%
$335.39
-$10.78
Research grade
NeutralYes at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Istaroth | Yesavg 66.5¢ | $258.94 | $237.58 | -$5.91 | 17% 402-2020 (2422) |
LI lissartterCTR<$100 | Noavg 28¢ | $94.46 | $67.53 | +$8.28 | 42% 5357-7373 (12730) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Noavg 33.9¢ | $91.86 | $21.89 | -$7.51 | 35% 16978-31455 (48433) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Noavg 27¢ | $8.1 | $5.1 | -$3 | 16% 247-1263 (1510) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100 | Noavg 27¢ | $5.94 | $3.3 | -$2.64 | 30% 1409-3213 (4622) |
IstarothInvested
$258.94
Value
$237.58
PnL
-$5.91
Record
17%
402-2020 (2422)
Invested
$94.46
Value
$67.53
PnL
+$8.28
Record
42%
5357-7373 (12730)
Invested
$91.86
Value
$21.89
PnL
-$7.51
Record
35%
16978-31455 (48433)
Invested
$8.1
Value
$5.1
PnL
-$3
Record
16%
247-1263 (1510)
Invested
$5.94
Value
$3.3
PnL
-$2.64
Record
30%
1409-3213 (4622)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.