Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut in the top 10 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 84¢ · $2K held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$1.7K
$8.63
89.7¢ → 84.4¢
-6% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Mature
23h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AV aviato | Yesavg 93¢ | $930 | $842.5 | -$87.5 | — 4-0 (4) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Yesavg 83.6¢ | $317.03 | $319.63 | +$2.6 | 41% 3126-4493 (7619) |
 Haradwaith | Yesavg 89.2¢ | $542.97 | $253.6 | +$9.95 | 51% 40-38 (78) |
 LornaPredictsCTR | Noavg 2¢ | $16 | $101.03 | +$107.05 | 12% 22-156 (178) |
WA WarriorH | Yesavg 87.3¢ | $364.59 | $84.46 | -$23.31 | 3% 1-32 (33) |
SU SulkingCrypto<$100 | Yesavg 78.4¢ | $60.12 | $59.97 | -$0.15 | 10% 3-28 (31) |
Invested
$930
Value
$842.5
PnL
-$87.5
Record
—
4-0 (4)
Invested
$317.03
Value
$319.63
PnL
+$2.6
Record
41%
3126-4493 (7619)
HaradwaithInvested
$542.97
Value
$253.6
PnL
+$9.95
Record
51%
40-38 (78)
LornaPredictsCTRInvested
$16
Value
$101.03
PnL
+$107.05
Record
12%
22-156 (178)
Invested
$364.59
Value
$84.46
PnL
-$23.31
Record
3%
1-32 (33)
Invested
$60.12
Value
$59.97
PnL
-$0.15
Record
10%
3-28 (31)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.