Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut in the top 1 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 76¢ · $748 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$747.89
-$17.88
79.3¢ → 76¢
-4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 76%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 80.1¢ | $434.73 | $388.06 | -$18.77 | 21% 300-1139 (1439) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 80.1¢ | $317.76 | $301.56 | -$19.69 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 21.5¢ | $85.43 | $86.5 | +$0.92 | |
LI lissartter | Noavg 79.7¢ | $245.02 | $195.59 | -$10.43 | 42% 5210-7141 (12351) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 80.7¢ | $104.47 | $94.43 | -$7.44 | 36% 15321-27387 (42708) |
 Hannah-Montana<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $69.81 | $69.81 | +$0 | 68% 205-97 (302) |
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$434.73
Value
$388.06
PnL
-$18.77
Record
21%
300-1139 (1439)
Both legs:
Invested
$245.02
Value
$195.59
PnL
-$10.43
Record
42%
5210-7141 (12351)
Invested
$104.47
Value
$94.43
PnL
-$7.44
Record
36%
15321-27387 (42708)
Hannah-Montana<$100Invested
$69.81
Value
$69.81
PnL
+$0
Record
68%
205-97 (302)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.