Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1540 by June 30, 2027?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 95¢ · $278 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$277.82
$33.88
73.1¢ → 94.5¢
+29% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Late
484h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 71.5¢ | $201.15 | $242.01 | +$40.85 | 41% 3118-4481 (7599) |
WA WarriorH<$100 | Noavg 85.5¢ | $40.12 | $20.2 | -$2.66 | 3% 1-31 (32) |
KL klli27<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $42.98 | $10.81 | -$2.07 | 27% 499-1349 (1848) |
 HaradwaithCTR | Yesavg 9¢ | $115.2 | $3.6 | -$0.84 | 53% 40-36 (76) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14¢ | $5.6 | $1.2 | -$1.4 | 10% 3-26 (29) |
Invested
$201.15
Value
$242.01
PnL
+$40.85
Record
41%
3118-4481 (7599)
Invested
$40.12
Value
$20.2
PnL
-$2.66
Record
3%
1-31 (32)
Invested
$42.98
Value
$10.81
PnL
-$2.07
Record
27%
499-1349 (1848)
HaradwaithCTRInvested
$115.2
Value
$3.6
PnL
-$0.84
Record
53%
40-36 (76)
Invested
$5.6
Value
$1.2
PnL
-$1.4
Record
10%
3-26 (29)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.