Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 53¢ · $839 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$838.82
-$8.92
44.2¢ → 53¢
+20% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+55 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Late
581h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
3 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Yesavg 47.9¢ | $429.16 | $415.57 | -$13.59 | 41% 3118-4481 (7599) |
TR troimCTR | Noavg 49.2¢ | $196.93 | $214.02 | +$17.09 | 2% 6-334 (340) |
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495 | Yesavg 36¢ | $174.31 | $174.35 | +$0.05 | 45% 13-16 (29) |
WA WarriorH<$100 | Yesavg 67.3¢ | $70.95 | $17.9 | -$6.3 | 3% 1-31 (32) |
KL klli27<$100 | Yesavg 70¢ | $49.77 | $16.97 | -$6.17 | 27% 499-1349 (1848) |
Invested
$429.16
Value
$415.57
PnL
-$13.59
Record
41%
3118-4481 (7599)
Invested
$196.93
Value
$214.02
PnL
+$17.09
Record
2%
6-334 (340)
Invested
$174.31
Value
$174.35
PnL
+$0.05
Record
45%
13-16 (29)
Invested
$70.95
Value
$17.9
PnL
-$6.3
Record
3%
1-31 (32)
Invested
$49.77
Value
$16.97
PnL
-$6.17
Record
27%
499-1349 (1848)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.