Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1500 by June 30, 2027?

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (86%) · Yes at 85¢ · $3K held · ends Jul 1, 2027

Yes85¢No15¢Ends Thu, Jul 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 86%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

-$46.75

Smart Money Entry

83.4¢ → 85.2¢

+2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes85%

No15%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares3,516

Combined PnL-$32.91

No1 trader

Total Value$155.86

Total Shares1,082

Combined PnL-$13.83

Yes — 86%No — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Hannah-Montana	Yesavg 80.9¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$10.17	— 0-10 (10)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Yesavg 82.8¢	$930.41	$901.56	-$28.84	41% 3116-4481 (7597)
Haradwaith	Yesavg 88.5¢	$956.28	$663.8	-$66.89	53% 40-36 (76)
TR troimCTR	Noavg 15.7¢	$169.7	$155.86	-$13.83	2% 6-334 (340)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495ARB<$100	Yesavg 40.9¢	$158.52	$127.08	+$130.55	45% 13-16 (29)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 40.9¢	$50.36	$98.71	+$118.55
└ No leg	Noavg 10.4¢	$20.55	$28.37	+$12
WA WarriorH	Yesavg 85.5¢	$221.62	$94.6	-$12.08	3% 1-31 (32)
SU SulkingCrypto<$100	Yesavg 79.9¢	$60.95	$50.14	-$3.55	10% 3-26 (29)
balthazar<$100	Yesavg 28.4¢	$62.46	$4.01	+$88.62	51% 4649-4526 (9175)

Hannah-Montana

Yes

Invested

$1,137.61

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$10.17

Record

—

0-10 (10)

xtxpleasecallme

Yes

Invested

$930.41

Value

$901.56

PnL

-$28.84

Record

41%

3116-4481 (7597)

Haradwaith

Yes

Invested

$956.28

Value

$663.8

PnL

-$66.89

Record

53%

40-36 (76)

troimCTR

Invested

$169.7

Value

$155.86

PnL

-$13.83

Record

6-334 (340)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$158.52

Value

$127.08

PnL

+$130.55

Record

45%

13-16 (29)

Both legs:

Yes$50.3640.9¢+$118.55

No$20.5510.4¢+$12

WarriorH

Yes

Invested

$221.62

Value

$94.6

PnL

-$12.08

Record

1-31 (32)

SulkingCrypto<$100

Yes

Invested

$60.95

Value

$50.14

PnL

-$3.55

Record

10%

3-26 (29)

balthazar<$100

Yes

Invested

$62.46

Value

$4.01

PnL

+$88.62

Record

51%

4649-4526 (9175)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 85%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.8%

85.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$15.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

115.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.