Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 30, 2026?
Resolved No. 38% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
8
No 38%
$879.69
-$372.92
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar | Noavg 98.8¢ | $746.12 | $749.64 | -$325.62 | 61% 21099-13436 (34535) |
ME melonmanm | Noavg 81¢ | $86.4 | $100 | +$12.98 | 65% 490-264 (754) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 93.8¢ | $30.16 | $30 | -$0.13 | 20% 312-1280 (1592) |
TY TyshaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.8¢ | $4.75 | $0.05 | -$4.7 | 73% 8254-3130 (11384) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR | Yesavg 10¢ | $432.87 | — | -$38.19 | 53% 6541-5757 (12298) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.9¢ | $13.75 | — | -$13.75 | 36% 15579-27522 (43101) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.5¢ | $1.91 | — | -$1.91 | 18% 3803-17230 (21033) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $1.6 | — | -$1.6 | 52% 1139-1031 (2170) |
balthazarInvested
$746.12
Value
$749.64
PnL
-$325.62
Record
61%
21099-13436 (34535)
Invested
$86.4
Value
$100
PnL
+$12.98
Record
65%
490-264 (754)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$30.16
Value
$30
PnL
-$0.13
Record
20%
312-1280 (1592)
Invested
$4.75
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$4.7
Record
73%
8254-3130 (11384)
Invested
$432.87
Value
—
PnL
-$38.19
Record
53%
6541-5757 (12298)
Invested
$13.75
Value
—
PnL
-$13.75
Record
36%
15579-27522 (43101)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$1.91
Value
—
PnL
-$1.91
Record
18%
3803-17230 (21033)
Invested
$1.6
Value
—
PnL
-$1.6
Record
52%
1139-1031 (2170)
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