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XenyCTR<$100YesYesYes
balthazarCTR<$100Yes
IstarothCTR<$100YesYes
2B9SCTR<$100YesYes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 28, 2026?
Resolved No. 100% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
8
Yes 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$24.93
Smart Money Signal
Yes
8 of 8 top traders (100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes8 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares2,118
Combined PnL-$24.93
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XenyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $20.19 | — | -$20.19 | 60% 976-658 (1634) |
TY TyshaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.8¢ | $4.75 | — | -$4.75 | 73% 8245-3108 (11353) |
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 46% 2748-3289 (6037) |
balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.4¢ | — | — | +$0 | 61% 20776-13190 (33966) |
IstarothCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 24% 285-905 (1190) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | — | — | +$0 | 36% 15014-27067 (42081) |
2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.6¢ | — | — | +$0 | 18% 3784-17097 (20881) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.8¢ | — | — | +$0 | 53% 1107-988 (2095) |
XenyCTR<$100Invested
$20.19
Value
—
PnL
-$20.19
Record
60%
976-658 (1634)
TY
TyshaCTR<$100Invested
$4.75
Value
—
PnL
-$4.75
Record
73%
8245-3108 (11353)
BI
BiggggggggCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
2748-3289 (6037)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
20776-13190 (33966)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
24%
285-905 (1190)
XT
xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
15014-27067 (42081)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
18%
3784-17097 (20881)
SN
SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
1107-988 (2095)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x8cf8ed6f...4e6a09
Slug
will-the-next-fable-model-5pt2-be-released-on-october-28-2026