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XenyCTR<$100YesYesNo
balthazar<$100NoNoNo
2B9S<$100No
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 26, 2026?
Resolved No. 29% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
7
Yes 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$97.61
Smart Money Signal
Yes
2 of 7 top traders (29%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares1,802
Combined PnL-$97.61
No5 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
Yes — 29%No — 71%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XenyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.5¢ | $20.72 | — | -$91.11 | 60% 975-654 (1629) |
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409fCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.3¢ | $6.5 | — | -$6.5 | 71% 122-50 (172) |
BI Bigggggggg<$100 | Noavg 97.7¢ | — | — | +$0 | 46% 2727-3261 (5988) |
balthazar<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | — | — | +$0 | 61% 20465-12833 (33298) |
RL RLWG<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | — | — | +$0 | 50% 7557-7585 (15142) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 92.5¢ | — | — | +$0 | 36% 14490-25940 (40430) |
2B9S<$100 | Noavg 90.7¢ | — | — | +$0 | 18% 3759-16667 (20426) |
XenyCTR<$100Invested
$20.72
Value
—
PnL
-$91.11
Record
60%
975-654 (1629)
0X
0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409fCTR<$100Invested
$6.5
Value
—
PnL
-$6.5
Record
71%
122-50 (172)
BI
Bigggggggg<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
2727-3261 (5988)
balthazar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
20465-12833 (33298)
RL
RLWG<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
7557-7585 (15142)
XT
xtxpleasecallme<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
14490-25940 (40430)
2B9S<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
18%
3759-16667 (20426)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x00e3b915...758a2f
Slug
will-the-next-fable-model-5pt2-be-released-on-october-26-2026