Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Iraq by December 31, 2026?
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 100¢ · $223 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 56%
$222.66
-$18.7
99.9¢ → 99.9¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+6 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Late
55h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO godblessme2026 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $124.87 | $124.88 | +$0.01 | 34% 276-525 (801) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $59.9 | $59.94 | +$0.04 | 53% 7051-6190 (13241) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $51.54 | $20.51 | -$2.56 | 34% 234-460 (694) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $9.99 | $9.99 | +$0 | 30% 243-579 (822) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $7 | $7 | +$0 | 39% 3645-5777 (9422) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.3¢ | $9.03 | $0.17 | -$8.86 | 36% 3768-6825 (10593) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.3¢ | $5.46 | $0.1 | -$5.36 | 43% 5075-6626 (11701) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.3¢ | $1.44 | $0.03 | -$1.41 | 16% 24-123 (147) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.3¢ | $0.58 | $0.01 | -$0.57 | 32% 168-365 (533) |
Invested
$124.87
Value
$124.88
PnL
+$0.01
Record
34%
276-525 (801)
Invested
$59.9
Value
$59.94
PnL
+$0.04
Record
53%
7051-6190 (13241)
Invested
$51.54
Value
$20.51
PnL
-$2.56
Record
34%
234-460 (694)
Invested
$9.99
Value
$9.99
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
243-579 (822)
Invested
$7
Value
$7
PnL
+$0
Record
39%
3645-5777 (9422)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$9.03
Value
$0.17
PnL
-$8.86
Record
36%
3768-6825 (10593)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$5.46
Value
$0.1
PnL
-$5.36
Record
43%
5075-6626 (11701)
Invested
$1.44
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$1.41
Record
16%
24-123 (147)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$0.58
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.57
Record
32%
168-365 (533)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.