Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 65% or higher?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (20%) · Yes at 78¢ · $457 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 20%
$457.15
-$91.81
Research grade
NeutralYes at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
20h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
20% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 The-Joker | Yesavg 66.9¢ | $312.3 | $373.59 | +$61.29 | — 0-4 (4) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Noavg 57¢ | $141.7 | $49.75 | -$91.95 | 41% 3010-4415 (7425) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Noavg 66.5¢ | $45.2 | $17 | -$28.2 | 17% 12-60 (72) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $42 | $14 | -$28 | — 0-12 (12) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $7.76 | $2.81 | -$4.95 | 51% 266-256 (522) |
The-JokerInvested
$312.3
Value
$373.59
PnL
+$61.29
Record
—
0-4 (4)
Invested
$141.7
Value
$49.75
PnL
-$91.95
Record
41%
3010-4415 (7425)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$45.2
Value
$17
PnL
-$28.2
Record
17%
12-60 (72)
Invested
$42
Value
$14
PnL
-$28
Record
—
0-12 (12)
Invested
$7.76
Value
$2.81
PnL
-$4.95
Record
51%
266-256 (522)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.