Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (83%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 60% or higher?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 17¢ · $144 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
No
3
No 67%
$144.36
-$57.66
31.1¢ → 17¢
-45% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 17%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Noavg 29.3¢ | $117.06 | $76.11 | -$40.95 | 41% 3040-4429 (7469) |
 The-Joker<$100 | Yesavg 81.9¢ | $69.6 | $63.33 | -$6.27 | — 0-4 (4) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $15.37 | $4.93 | -$10.44 | 15% 15-83 (98) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
17.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.