Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 55% or higher?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 85¢ · $1K held · ends Jul 1, 2027

Yes85¢No15¢Ends Thu, Jul 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

-$144.25

Smart Money Entry

82.3¢ → 85.2¢

+3% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes85%

No15%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,293

Combined PnL-$52.33

No3 traders

Total Value$170.96

Total Shares1,032

Combined PnL-$91.92

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KimchiCapital	Yesavg 79¢	$578.48	$637.66	+$59.18	76% 517-161 (678)
Istaroth	Yesavg 87.2¢	$841.75	$529.79	-$111.51	28% 280-709 (989)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Noavg 21¢	$214.2	$164.84	-$77.42	35% 14791-26919 (41710)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 17.9¢	$7.5	$3.91	-$0.06	57% 13017-9926 (22943)
LI lissartterCTR<$100	Noavg 19.5¢	$30.47	$2.22	-$14.44	42% 5192-7111 (12303)

KimchiCapital

Yes

Invested

$578.48

Value

$637.66

PnL

+$59.18

Record

76%

517-161 (678)

Istaroth

Yes

Invested

$841.75

Value

$529.79

PnL

-$111.51

Record

28%

280-709 (989)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Invested

$214.2

Value

$164.84

PnL

-$77.42

Record

35%

14791-26919 (41710)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$7.5

Value

$3.91

PnL

-$0.06

Record

57%

13017-9926 (22943)

lissartterCTR<$100

Invested

$30.47

Value

$2.22

PnL

-$14.44

Record

42%

5192-7111 (12303)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 85%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.7%

85.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$15.37

Max Loss

-$100.00

115.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.