Will the New England Patriots have more than 11.5 wins during the 2026 NFL season?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 76¢ · $464 held · ends Feb 16, 2027

Yes25¢No75¢Ends Tue, Feb 16, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$463.99

Combined PnL

$7.43

Smart Money Entry

72.8¢ → 75.5¢

+4% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes25%

No76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$357.51

Total Shares462

Combined PnL+$5.01

Yes1 trader

Total Value$12.87

Total Shares54

Combined PnL+$2.42

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

45h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x53eCc53E7	Noavg 72¢	$249.2	$316.14	+$6.18	43% 470-622 (1092)
AB ABC12345654321ARB<$100	Yesavg 23.3¢	$117.99	$93.61	+$3.17	48% 1884-2013 (3897)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 23.3¢	$69.96	$72.1	+$9.5
└ No leg	Noavg 74.5¢	$21.09	$21.51	-$6.33
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 81.4¢	$27.32	$26.17	-$0.77	14% 461-2758 (3219)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 78¢	$15.6	$15.2	-$0.4	35% 18159-34016 (52175)
extractive-manateeCTR<$100	Yesavg 22.3¢	$30.45	$12.87	+$2.42	33% 541-1086 (1627)

0x53eCc53E7

Invested

$249.2

Value

$316.14

PnL

+$6.18

Record

43%

470-622 (1092)

ABC12345654321ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$117.99

Value

$93.61

PnL

+$3.17

Record

48%

1884-2013 (3897)

Both legs:

Yes$69.9623.3¢+$9.5

No$21.0974.5¢-$6.33

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$27.32

Value

$26.17

PnL

-$0.77

Record

14%

461-2758 (3219)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$15.6

Value

$15.2

PnL

-$0.4

Record

35%

18159-34016 (52175)

extractive-manateeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.45

Value

$12.87

PnL

+$2.42

Record

33%

541-1086 (1627)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 76%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

45h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 3

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.4%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$29.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

129.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.