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CosmicCedar<$100No
balthazarCTRYesYesYesYes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the nationwide ground stop be lifted Nov 14, 7–8 AM ET?
Resolved No. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Yes 80%
Total Value
$11
Combined PnL
-$30.67
Smart Money Signal
Yes
4 of 5 top traders (80%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No1 trader
Total Value$11
Total Shares11
Combined PnL+$0.11
Yes4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares644
Combined PnL-$30.78
No — 20%Yes — 80%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CosmicCedar<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $10.89 | $11 | +$0.11 | 33% 48-96 (144) |
balthazarCTR | Yesavg 5.3¢ | $178.48 | — | -$7.95 | 44% 5041-6482 (11523) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.2¢ | $18.1 | — | -$18.1 | 39% 3605-5672 (9277) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.3¢ | $1.3 | — | -$1.3 | 29% 3160-7827 (10987) |
AH aHjCzCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.3¢ | $3.53 | — | -$3.42 | 25% 1308-3933 (5241) |
CosmicCedar<$100Invested
$10.89
Value
$11
PnL
+$0.11
Record
33%
48-96 (144)
balthazarCTRInvested
$178.48
Value
—
PnL
-$7.95
Record
44%
5041-6482 (11523)
XT
xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100Invested
$18.1
Value
—
PnL
-$18.1
Record
39%
3605-5672 (9277)
QW
qwen300.fundCTR<$100Invested
$1.3
Value
—
PnL
-$1.3
Record
29%
3160-7827 (10987)
AH
aHjCzCTR<$100Invested
$3.53
Value
—
PnL
-$3.42
Record
25%
1308-3933 (5241)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xe21d139b...d59e9f
Slug
will-the-nationwide-ground-stop-be-lifted-nov-14-78-am-et