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CosmicCedar<$100No
balthazarCTRYesYesYesYesYes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the nationwide ground stop be lifted Nov 14, 10–11 AM ET?
Resolved No. 83% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
Yes 83%
Total Value
$11
Combined PnL
-$31.87
Smart Money Signal
Yes
5 of 6 top traders (83%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No1 trader
Total Value$11
Total Shares11
Combined PnL+$0.11
Yes5 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares704
Combined PnL-$31.98
No — 17%Yes — 83%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CosmicCedar<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $10.89 | $11 | +$0.11 | 33% 48-96 (144) |
balthazarCTR | Yesavg 5.3¢ | $178.48 | — | -$7.95 | 44% 5041-6482 (11523) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $18.56 | — | -$18.56 | 39% 3605-5672 (9277) |
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.3¢ | $0.74 | — | -$0.74 | 18% 853-3905 (4758) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.3¢ | $1.3 | — | -$1.3 | 29% 3160-7827 (10987) |
AH aHjCzCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.3¢ | $3.53 | — | -$3.42 | 25% 1308-3933 (5241) |
CosmicCedar<$100Invested
$10.89
Value
$11
PnL
+$0.11
Record
33%
48-96 (144)
balthazarCTRInvested
$178.48
Value
—
PnL
-$7.95
Record
44%
5041-6482 (11523)
XT
xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100Invested
$18.56
Value
—
PnL
-$18.56
Record
39%
3605-5672 (9277)
0X
0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100Invested
$0.74
Value
—
PnL
-$0.74
Record
18%
853-3905 (4758)
QW
qwen300.fundCTR<$100Invested
$1.3
Value
—
PnL
-$1.3
Record
29%
3160-7827 (10987)
AH
aHjCzCTR<$100Invested
$3.53
Value
—
PnL
-$3.42
Record
25%
1308-3933 (5241)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x36ed588d...760261
Slug
will-the-nationwide-ground-stop-be-lifted-nov-14-1011-am-et