Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (95%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the National Regeneration Movement (Morena) win the second most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 5.5¢ · $62 held · ends Jun 6, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$62.15
$35.54
Research grade
AvoidYes at 6%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 95%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Late
725h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
3 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 archaicCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $4.78 | $46.18 | +$25.18 | 85% 1906-339 (2245) |
 viniiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.5¢ | $0.91 | $7.37 | +$6.46 | 74% 2792-1003 (3795) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.9¢ | $8.18 | $5.74 | +$2.57 | 36% 16059-28074 (44133) |
BA balerinacapuchina<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $1.96 | $1.93 | -$0.03 | 72% 176-70 (246) |
 RememberAmalekCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $0.08 | $0.93 | +$1.36 | 56% 973-769 (1742) |
archaicCTR<$100Invested
$4.78
Value
$46.18
PnL
+$25.18
Record
85%
1906-339 (2245)
viniiCTR<$100Invested
$0.91
Value
$7.37
PnL
+$6.46
Record
74%
2792-1003 (3795)
Invested
$8.18
Value
$5.74
PnL
+$2.57
Record
36%
16059-28074 (44133)
Invested
$1.96
Value
$1.93
PnL
-$0.03
Record
72%
176-70 (246)
RememberAmalekCTR<$100Invested
$0.08
Value
$0.93
PnL
+$1.36
Record
56%
973-769 (1742)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
5.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.