Will the National Regeneration Movement (Morena) win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 86¢ · $1K held · ends Jun 7, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$1.3K
$10.69
90.1¢ → 86.2¢
-4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Late
3747h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 archaic | Yesavg 91.6¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$25.34 | 85% 1904-339 (2243) |
HE HerrieDavis | Yesavg 79.2¢ | $114.86 | $126.76 | +$11.91 | 36% 2079-3718 (5797) |
CO cowcatCTR<$100 | Noavg 7.9¢ | $29.46 | $50.6 | +$21.14 | 53% 1560-1362 (2922) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Yesavg 85.9¢ | $46.25 | $47.12 | +$0.87 | 53% 6686-5884 (12570) |
 RememberAmalekCTR<$100 | Noavg 10.9¢ | $13 | $15.12 | +$2.12 | 56% 972-768 (1740) |
archaicInvested
$1,126.55
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$25.34
Record
85%
1904-339 (2243)
Invested
$114.86
Value
$126.76
PnL
+$11.91
Record
36%
2079-3718 (5797)
Invested
$29.46
Value
$50.6
PnL
+$21.14
Record
53%
1560-1362 (2922)
Invested
$46.25
Value
$47.12
PnL
+$0.87
Record
53%
6686-5884 (12570)
RememberAmalekCTR<$100Invested
$13
Value
$15.12
PnL
+$2.12
Record
56%
972-768 (1740)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.