Will the National Action Party (PAN) win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 95¢ · $460 held · ends Jun 6, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 20%
$459.71
$159.62
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 88.5¢ | $249.61 | $267.73 | +$18.12 | 53% 6686-5884 (12570) |
 NadmiCTR | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $20.27 | $150.94 | +$130.67 | 47% 2036-2277 (4313) |
CO cowcatCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $14.31 | $24.12 | +$9.96 | 53% 1560-1362 (2922) |
 RememberAmalekCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.9¢ | $14.75 | $12.75 | -$2 | 56% 972-768 (1740) |
 Rex416CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.6¢ | $1.31 | $4.17 | +$2.86 | 57% 2535-1922 (4457) |
Invested
$249.61
Value
$267.73
PnL
+$18.12
Record
53%
6686-5884 (12570)
NadmiCTRInvested
$20.27
Value
$150.94
PnL
+$130.67
Record
47%
2036-2277 (4313)
Invested
$14.31
Value
$24.12
PnL
+$9.96
Record
53%
1560-1362 (2922)
RememberAmalekCTR<$100Invested
$14.75
Value
$12.75
PnL
-$2
Record
56%
972-768 (1740)
Rex416CTR<$100Invested
$1.31
Value
$4.17
PnL
+$2.86
Record
57%
2535-1922 (4457)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.