Will the National Party win 30-34 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 85¢ · $758 held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 57%
$757.59
-$1.25
83.1¢ → 84.5¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Late
515h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Haradwaith | Noavg 83.8¢ | $635.95 | $585.8 | -$1.42 | 40% 6569-9849 (16418) |
 nicoco89CTR<$100 | Yesavg 20.7¢ | $90.2 | $67.91 | -$22.29 | 66% 1170-614 (1784) |
 applepie3<$100 | Noavg 71.9¢ | $33.42 | $39.06 | +$5.41 | 59% 459-314 (773) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $16.4 | $16.8 | +$0.4 | 53% 23817-20965 (44782) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 84.4¢ | $42.2 | $16.8 | +$22.02 | 43% 8795-11441 (20236) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18.6¢ | $36.49 | $16.25 | -$1.85 | 23% 1808-6060 (7868) |
SP SPLPBCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $17.6 | $14.96 | -$3.52 | 24% 797-2566 (3363) |
HaradwaithInvested
$635.95
Value
$585.8
PnL
-$1.42
Record
40%
6569-9849 (16418)
nicoco89CTR<$100Invested
$90.2
Value
$67.91
PnL
-$22.29
Record
66%
1170-614 (1784)
applepie3<$100Invested
$33.42
Value
$39.06
PnL
+$5.41
Record
59%
459-314 (773)
Invested
$16.4
Value
$16.8
PnL
+$0.4
Record
53%
23817-20965 (44782)
Invested
$42.2
Value
$16.8
PnL
+$22.02
Record
43%
8795-11441 (20236)
Invested
$36.49
Value
$16.25
PnL
-$1.85
Record
23%
1808-6060 (7868)
Invested
$17.6
Value
$14.96
PnL
-$3.52
Record
24%
797-2566 (3363)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.