Will The MongolZ Win the IEM Beijing 2026?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 87¢ · $256 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$255.55
$28.43
83.6¢ → 86.6¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 87%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Mature
32h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes | Noavg 88.1¢ | $140.95 | $138.56 | -$2.39 | 53% 23824-20966 (44790) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 74.2¢ | $86.49 | $89.26 | +$17 | 34% 19419-36966 (56385) |
 Haradwaith | Noavg 86.9¢ | $135.35 | $16.85 | +$6.34 | 40% 6571-9852 (16423) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.3¢ | $0.89 | $6.9 | +$4.27 | 17% 1362-6594 (7956) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.7¢ | $0.33 | $3.54 | +$3.21 | 23% 1809-6061 (7870) |
Invested
$140.95
Value
$138.56
PnL
-$2.39
Record
53%
23824-20966 (44790)
Invested
$86.49
Value
$89.26
PnL
+$17
Record
34%
19419-36966 (56385)
HaradwaithInvested
$135.35
Value
$16.85
PnL
+$6.34
Record
40%
6571-9852 (16423)
Invested
$0.89
Value
$6.9
PnL
+$4.27
Record
17%
1362-6594 (7956)
Invested
$0.33
Value
$3.54
PnL
+$3.21
Record
23%
1809-6061 (7870)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.