Will the Minnesota Vikings make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 75¢ · $905 held · ends Jan 25, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 25%
2 arb excluded
$904.91
$171.57
Research grade
NeutralYes at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
89h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
9 consensus flips
25% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x53eCc53E7 | Yesavg 54¢ | $243.38 | $338.03 | +$94.65 | 44% 506-657 (1163) |
 TimeTravelerARB<$100 | Noavg 23.5¢ | $111.02 | $167.34 | +$49.68 | 41% 2126-3051 (5177) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 23.5¢ | $124.91 | $92.86 | +$10.4 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 31.6¢ | $28.57 | $74.48 | +$39.27 | |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR | Noavg 24.6¢ | $65 | $147.23 | +$50.37 | 45% 2992-3689 (6681) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Yesavg 74.9¢ | $431.71 | $138.37 | -$17.43 | 34% 19319-36895 (56214) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 74.9¢ | $82.15 | $90.5 | -$60.31 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 26¢ | $71.17 | $47.87 | +$42.88 | |
AU auros2CTR | No | $110.44 | $110.44 | +$25.25 | — 4-0 (4) |
ND ndb1CTR<$100 | Noavg 19¢ | $2.2 | $3.5 | +$1.3 | 64% 1050-593 (1643) |
Invested
$243.38
Value
$338.03
PnL
+$94.65
Record
44%
506-657 (1163)
TimeTravelerARB<$100Invested
$111.02
Value
$167.34
PnL
+$49.68
Record
41%
2126-3051 (5177)
Both legs:
Invested
$65
Value
$147.23
PnL
+$50.37
Record
45%
2992-3689 (6681)
Invested
$431.71
Value
$138.37
PnL
-$17.43
Record
34%
19319-36895 (56214)
Both legs:
Invested
$110.44
Value
$110.44
PnL
+$25.25
Record
—
4-0 (4)
Invested
$2.2
Value
$3.5
PnL
+$1.3
Record
64%
1050-593 (1643)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.