Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (73%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the median home value in the DC Metro be less than $503,000 on December 31?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 27¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 11, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
No
4
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$1.7K
$22.87
42.1¢ → 27¢
-36% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 27%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Yesavg 63.9¢ | $981.3 | $826.88 | -$42.2 | 18% 366-1654 (2020) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 63.9¢ | $516.5 | $561.62 | +$43.98 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 38.8¢ | $337.41 | $265.25 | -$86.18 | |
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754 | Yes | $604.66 | $604.66 | +$60.9 | — 7-2 (9) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Noavg 49.9¢ | $233.04 | $183.74 | -$49.31 | 36% 16083-28096 (44179) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Noavg 25.5¢ | $56.9 | $67.94 | +$11.04 | 53% 6697-5893 (12590) |
LI lissartterCTR<$100 | Noavg 33¢ | $56.6 | $33.75 | +$0.24 | 42% 5285-7247 (12532) |
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$981.3
Value
$826.88
PnL
-$42.2
Record
18%
366-1654 (2020)
Both legs:
Invested
$604.66
Value
$604.66
PnL
+$60.9
Record
—
7-2 (9)
Invested
$233.04
Value
$183.74
PnL
-$49.31
Record
36%
16083-28096 (44179)
Invested
$56.9
Value
$67.94
PnL
+$11.04
Record
53%
6697-5893 (12590)
Invested
$56.6
Value
$33.75
PnL
+$0.24
Record
42%
5285-7247 (12532)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
27.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.