Will the median home value in NYC be less than $445,000 on December 31?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 63¢ · $287 held · ends Jan 11, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
1 arb excluded
$287.07
$60.78
Research grade
NeutralNo at 63%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 70%
Freshness
Mature
44h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Yesavg 26.2¢ | $758.58 | $117.05 | +$85.26 | 35% 17512-32753 (50265) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 26.2¢ | $58.01 | $73.43 | +$187.33 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 64.8¢ | $38.89 | $43.62 | -$102.06 | |
 extractive-manateeCTR | Yesavg 10¢ | $20.95 | $109.28 | +$52.22 | 33% 538-1081 (1619) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.4¢ | $1.28 | $19.03 | +$13.73 | 17% 4179-19735 (23914) |
SU SulkingCrypto<$100 | Noavg 73.2¢ | $16.41 | $14.54 | +$1.13 | 16% 265-1361 (1626) |
WA WarriorH<$100 | Noavg 73.7¢ | $57 | $14.54 | -$4.4 | 17% 1063-5309 (6372) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F | Noavg 72.7¢ | $128 | $12.64 | -$1.9 | 25% 1627-4961 (6588) |
Invested
$758.58
Value
$117.05
PnL
+$85.26
Record
35%
17512-32753 (50265)
Both legs:
extractive-manateeCTRInvested
$20.95
Value
$109.28
PnL
+$52.22
Record
33%
538-1081 (1619)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$1.28
Value
$19.03
PnL
+$13.73
Record
17%
4179-19735 (23914)
Invested
$16.41
Value
$14.54
PnL
+$1.13
Record
16%
265-1361 (1626)
Invested
$57
Value
$14.54
PnL
-$4.4
Record
17%
1063-5309 (6372)
Invested
$128
Value
$12.64
PnL
-$1.9
Record
25%
1627-4961 (6588)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
62.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.