Will the median home value in NYC be between $445,000 and $458,000 on December 31?

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 67¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 11, 2027

Yes34¢No66¢Ends Mon, Jan 11, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 25%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

-$54.53

Smart Money Entry

65.1¢ → 66.5¢

+2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 8 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes34%

No67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$455.9

Total Shares686

Combined PnL-$39.8

Yes6 traders

Total Value$189.14

Total Shares544

Combined PnL-$14.73

No — 25%Yes — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 66.1¢	$869.9	$829.6	+$47.4	16% 416-2180 (2596)
└ No leg	Noavg 66.1¢	$520.2	$511.56	-$10.03
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 36¢	$260.56	$318.04	+$57.42
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 65.1¢	$622.81	$418.36	-$40.65	35% 17266-31860 (49126)
YoungAlphaGoatCTR	Yesavg 36.4¢	$1.1K	$52.31	-$4.61	44% 389-487 (876)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 65¢	$75.82	$37.54	+$0.85	57% 17528-13093 (30621)
TR troimCTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$22.4	$32.63	+$10.23	36% 399-696 (1095)
WA WarriorHCTR	Yesavg 45¢	$193	$32.16	-$11.04	17% 1056-5089 (6145)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 13.6¢	$5.72	$29.16	+$14.08	18% 4096-19230 (23326)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR	Yesavg 43¢	$114.8	$27.14	-$11.5	25% 1615-4803 (6418)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 44¢	$97.45	$15.75	-$11.89	17% 260-1309 (1569)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$869.9

Value

$829.6

PnL

+$47.4

Record

16%

416-2180 (2596)

Both legs:

No$520.266.1¢-$10.03

Yes$260.5636¢+$57.42

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$622.81

Value

$418.36

PnL

-$40.65

Record

35%

17266-31860 (49126)

YoungAlphaGoatCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,054.17

Value

$52.31

PnL

-$4.61

Record

44%

389-487 (876)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$75.82

Value

$37.54

PnL

+$0.85

Record

57%

17528-13093 (30621)

troimCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.4

Value

$32.63

PnL

+$10.23

Record

36%

399-696 (1095)

WarriorHCTR

Yes

Invested

$193

Value

$32.16

PnL

-$11.04

Record

17%

1056-5089 (6145)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.72

Value

$29.16

PnL

+$14.08

Record

18%

4096-19230 (23326)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR

Yes

Invested

$114.8

Value

$27.14

PnL

-$11.5

Record

25%

1615-4803 (6418)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$97.45

Value

$15.75

PnL

-$11.89

Record

17%

260-1309 (1569)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 67%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 8 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.