Will the median home value in Miami be between $851,000 and $870,000 on December 31?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 89¢ · $150 held · ends Jan 11, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$150
-$3.1
91.2¢ → 88.6¢
-3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 89.5¢ | $41.17 | $42.58 | +$1.41 | 61% 20778-13190 (33968) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $42.79 | $36.31 | -$6.48 | 36% 15021-27071 (42092) |
12 123987456<$100 | Noavg 94.9¢ | $28.47 | $27.77 | -$0.7 | 45% 1830-2273 (4103) |
ZE zerone777<$100 | Noavg 89.2¢ | $21.41 | $22.21 | +$0.8 | 40% 391-591 (982) |
 2B9S<$100 | Noavg 92.1¢ | $19.4 | $21.27 | +$1.87 | 18% 3784-17100 (20884) |
balthazar<$100Invested
$41.17
Value
$42.58
PnL
+$1.41
Record
61%
20778-13190 (33968)
Invested
$42.79
Value
$36.31
PnL
-$6.48
Record
36%
15021-27071 (42092)
Invested
$28.47
Value
$27.77
PnL
-$0.7
Record
45%
1830-2273 (4103)
Invested
$21.41
Value
$22.21
PnL
+$0.8
Record
40%
391-591 (982)
2B9S<$100Invested
$19.4
Value
$21.27
PnL
+$1.87
Record
18%
3784-17100 (20884)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.