Will the median home value in Miami be between $809,000 and $830,000 on December 31?
10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (91%) · No at 80¢ · $847 held · ends Jan 11, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 91%
$847.46
$139.9
73.1¢ → 80¢
+9% since entry · 10 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 80%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Istaroth | Noavg 72¢ | $527.71 | $518.02 | -$2.55 | 17% 402-2020 (2422) |
GO godblessme2026 | Noavg 72.1¢ | $97.35 | $105.98 | +$8.63 | 42% 6041-8253 (14294) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 26¢ | $298.54 | $100.18 | +$141.92 | 35% 16978-31455 (48433) |
 2B9S<$100 | Noavg 80.5¢ | $57.8 | $48.6 | -$9.2 | 18% 4067-19070 (23137) |
ZE zerone777<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $17.76 | $18.84 | +$1.08 | 38% 452-725 (1177) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $19.04 | $17.38 | -$1.66 | 79% 10651-2799 (13450) |
GI GingerMcKenna<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $14.8 | $15.7 | +$0.9 | 38% 2939-4714 (7653) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $7.6 | $7.85 | +$0.25 | 63% 13059-7813 (20872) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $5.32 | $5.5 | +$0.17 | 50% 7869-7957 (15826) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $4.08 | $4.71 | +$0.63 | 55% 26056-21461 (47517) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $4.98 | $4.71 | -$0.27 | 60% 7190-4757 (11947) |
IstarothInvested
$527.71
Value
$518.02
PnL
-$2.55
Record
17%
402-2020 (2422)
Invested
$97.35
Value
$105.98
PnL
+$8.63
Record
42%
6041-8253 (14294)
Invested
$298.54
Value
$100.18
PnL
+$141.92
Record
35%
16978-31455 (48433)
2B9S<$100Invested
$57.8
Value
$48.6
PnL
-$9.2
Record
18%
4067-19070 (23137)
Invested
$17.76
Value
$18.84
PnL
+$1.08
Record
38%
452-725 (1177)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$19.04
Value
$17.38
PnL
-$1.66
Record
79%
10651-2799 (13450)
Invested
$14.8
Value
$15.7
PnL
+$0.9
Record
38%
2939-4714 (7653)
Invested
$7.6
Value
$7.85
PnL
+$0.25
Record
63%
13059-7813 (20872)
Invested
$5.32
Value
$5.5
PnL
+$0.17
Record
50%
7869-7957 (15826)
balthazar<$100Invested
$4.08
Value
$4.71
PnL
+$0.63
Record
55%
26056-21461 (47517)
Invested
$4.98
Value
$4.71
PnL
-$0.27
Record
60%
7190-4757 (11947)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.