Will the median home value in Dallas Metro be less than $379,000 on December 31?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 68¢ · $276 held · ends Jan 11, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$276.43
$3.64
69.3¢ → 67.5¢
-3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 68%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 68¢ | $164.86 | $172.35 | +$7.5 | 41% 3108-4463 (7571) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 76.5¢ | $61.5 | $55.07 | -$6.43 | 53% 5637-5072 (10709) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 64.5¢ | $25.8 | $27.4 | +$1.6 | 51% 4634-4520 (9154) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $20.1 | $20.55 | +$0.45 | 27% 933-2514 (3447) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Noavg 35¢ | $0.54 | $1.05 | +$0.52 | 49% 86-88 (174) |
Invested
$164.86
Value
$172.35
PnL
+$7.5
Record
41%
3108-4463 (7571)
Invested
$61.5
Value
$55.07
PnL
-$6.43
Record
53%
5637-5072 (10709)
balthazar<$100Invested
$25.8
Value
$27.4
PnL
+$1.6
Record
51%
4634-4520 (9154)
Invested
$20.1
Value
$20.55
PnL
+$0.45
Record
27%
933-2514 (3447)
Invested
$0.54
Value
$1.05
PnL
+$0.52
Record
49%
86-88 (174)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.