Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (70%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the median home value in Austin Metro be less than $397,000 on December 31?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 30¢ · $887 held · ends Jan 11, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
1 arb excluded
$887.45
-$241.2
48.2¢ → 30¢
-38% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 30%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Noavg 50.4¢ | $719.03 | $353.98 | -$262.06 | 35% 17266-31860 (49126) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Yesavg 61¢ | $467.27 | $319.46 | -$39.91 | 16% 416-2180 (2596) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 61¢ | $194.74 | $207.65 | +$15.24 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 52.3¢ | $167.16 | $111.81 | -$55.15 | |
 YoungAlphaGoat | Yesavg 60.1¢ | $152.09 | $164.31 | +$12.22 | 44% 389-487 (876) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Noavg 43¢ | $47 | $16.45 | -$3.76 | 17% 260-1309 (1569) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Noavg 22¢ | $8.8 | $14 | +$5.2 | 79% 10898-2965 (13863) |
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100 | Noavg 22¢ | $6.6 | $10.5 | +$3.9 | 50% 8141-8288 (16429) |
LI lissartterCTR<$100 | Noavg 23¢ | $4.6 | $7 | +$2.4 | 42% 5362-7390 (12752) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Noavg 17¢ | $0.85 | $1.75 | +$0.9 | 31% 2028-4546 (6574) |
Invested
$719.03
Value
$353.98
PnL
-$262.06
Record
35%
17266-31860 (49126)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$467.27
Value
$319.46
PnL
-$39.91
Record
16%
416-2180 (2596)
Both legs:
YoungAlphaGoatInvested
$152.09
Value
$164.31
PnL
+$12.22
Record
44%
389-487 (876)
Invested
$47
Value
$16.45
PnL
-$3.76
Record
17%
260-1309 (1569)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$8.8
Value
$14
PnL
+$5.2
Record
79%
10898-2965 (13863)
Invested
$6.6
Value
$10.5
PnL
+$3.9
Record
50%
8141-8288 (16429)
Invested
$4.6
Value
$7
PnL
+$2.4
Record
42%
5362-7390 (12752)
Invested
$0.85
Value
$1.75
PnL
+$0.9
Record
31%
2028-4546 (6574)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
30.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.