Will the lowest St. Louis river level be 3.00 ft or more by November 30?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 74¢ · $3K held · ends Dec 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$2.9K
$58.89
69.8¢ → 73.7¢
+6% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 74%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+35 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Late
579h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ST Stonktrader | Noavg 69¢ | $1.8K | $1.9K | +$102.18 | 75% 167-55 (222) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 72.5¢ | $903.48 | $539.38 | -$64.97 | 36% 15393-27456 (42849) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 80.2¢ | $357.47 | $314.84 | -$30.08 | 20% 308-1212 (1520) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 80.2¢ | $252.42 | $239.72 | -$12.98 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 23.6¢ | $74.27 | $75.12 | -$17.1 | |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.3¢ | $38.5 | $59.87 | +$21.37 | 18% 3799-17212 (21011) |
CL ClickKlackClick<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $25 | $25.31 | +$0.31 | 99% 174-1 (175) |
Invested
$1,833.15
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$102.18
Record
75%
167-55 (222)
Invested
$903.48
Value
$539.38
PnL
-$64.97
Record
36%
15393-27456 (42849)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$357.47
Value
$314.84
PnL
-$30.08
Record
20%
308-1212 (1520)
Both legs:
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$38.5
Value
$59.87
PnL
+$21.37
Record
18%
3799-17212 (21011)
Invested
$25
Value
$25.31
PnL
+$0.31
Record
99%
174-1 (175)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.