Will the lowest St. Louis river level be 1.00 to 2.99 ft by November 30?

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (30%) · Yes at 86¢ · $2K held · ends Dec 2

Yes86¢No14¢Ends Wed, Dec 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 30%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$134.41

Smart Money Entry

50.3¢ → 86.2¢

+71% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 10 top traders (30%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes86%

No14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,406

Combined PnL+$209.93

No7 traders

Total Value$63.8

Total Shares311

Combined PnL-$75.52

Yes — 30%No — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Istaroth	Yesavg 55.4¢	$877.48	$767.87	-$15.21	14% 461-2758 (3219)
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 63.6¢	$1.5K	$711.48	-$120.35	35% 18159-34016 (52175)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 27.8¢	$168.68	$483.1	+$429.38
└ No leg	Noavg 63.6¢	$708.04	$228.38	-$549.73
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271	Yesavg 43.8¢	$270.37	$491.01	+$220.64	27% 6849-18792 (25641)
2B9SARB<$100	Noavg 64.7¢	$271.33	$109.96	-$134.97	18% 4284-20059 (24343)
└ No leg	Noavg 64.7¢	$221.48	$70.21	-$161.6
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 25¢	$12.51	$39.75	+$26.63
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 24.9¢	$46.53	$26.52	-$9.31	53% 8228-7325 (15553)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100	Yesavg 57¢	$12.02	$15.9	+$4.5	40% 285-429 (714)
ME merodCTR<$100	Noavg 77¢	$44.66	$11.89	-$32.77	43% 3133-4188 (7321)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Noavg 77¢	$40.04	$10.66	-$29.38	44% 6482-8172 (14654)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 13¢	$4.8	$7.54	+$2.74	77% 12539-3686 (16225)
GI GingerMcKennaCTR<$100	Noavg 74¢	$19.22	$4.11	-$4.99	38% 3073-4954 (8027)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 13.8¢	$1.38	$2.05	+$0.67	59% 11839-8177 (20016)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Noavg 70.2¢	$3.51	$1.02	-$2.48	50% 659-658 (1317)

Istaroth

Yes

Invested

$877.48

Value

$767.87

PnL

-$15.21

Record

14%

461-2758 (3219)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$1,462.91

Value

$711.48

PnL

-$120.35

Record

35%

18159-34016 (52175)

Both legs:

Yes$168.6827.8¢+$429.38

No$708.0463.6¢-$549.73

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271

Yes

Invested

$270.37

Value

$491.01

PnL

+$220.64

Record

27%

6849-18792 (25641)

2B9SARB<$100

Invested

$271.33

Value

$109.96

PnL

-$134.97

Record

18%

4284-20059 (24343)

Both legs:

No$221.4864.7¢-$161.6

Yes$12.5125¢+$26.63

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$46.53

Value

$26.52

PnL

-$9.31

Record

53%

8228-7325 (15553)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.02

Value

$15.9

PnL

+$4.5

Record

40%

285-429 (714)

merodCTR<$100

Invested

$44.66

Value

$11.89

PnL

-$32.77

Record

43%

3133-4188 (7321)

korda77CTR<$100

Invested

$40.04

Value

$10.66

PnL

-$29.38

Record

44%

6482-8172 (14654)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$4.8

Value

$7.54

PnL

+$2.74

Record

77%

12539-3686 (16225)

GingerMcKennaCTR<$100

Invested

$19.22

Value

$4.11

PnL

-$4.99

Record

38%

3073-4954 (8027)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$1.38

Value

$2.05

PnL

+$0.67

Record

59%

11839-8177 (20016)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Invested

$3.51

Value

$1.02

PnL

-$2.48

Record

50%

659-658 (1317)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 86%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 10 top traders (30%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.8%

86.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.