Will the lowest Baton Rouge river level be 6.00 ft or more by November 30?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 62¢ · $1K held · ends Dec 2

Yes38¢No62¢Ends Wed, Dec 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 88%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$64.8

Smart Money Entry

61.5¢ → 61.6¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes38%

No62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,765

Combined PnL-$71.98

Yes1 trader

Total Value$63.98

Total Shares224

Combined PnL+$7.18

No — 88%Yes — 12%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 64.9¢	$956.58	$373.02	-$159.26	35% 17549-32799 (50348)
ST Started-with-20-USD	Noavg 53.3¢	$15.99	$361.16	+$97.88	55% 638-527 (1165)
Lucerys	Noavg 65¢	$220.15	$202.32	-$17.82	79% 11953-3142 (15095)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 66.1¢	$149.84	$157.76	+$7.92	53% 7948-7058 (15006)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 27.5¢	$56.81	$63.98	+$7.18	27% 6708-18524 (25232)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 62.2¢	$37.35	$35.82	-$1.53	61% 15629-9929 (25558)
0X 0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060<$100	Noavg 55¢	$5.5	$5.97	+$0.47	72% 24736-9849 (34585)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 46.1¢	$2.31	$2.67	+$0.36	30% 2095-4886 (6981)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$956.58

Value

$373.02

PnL

-$159.26

Record

35%

17549-32799 (50348)

Started-with-20-USD

Invested

$15.99

Value

$361.16

PnL

+$97.88

Record

55%

638-527 (1165)

Lucerys

Invested

$220.15

Value

$202.32

PnL

-$17.82

Record

79%

11953-3142 (15095)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$149.84

Value

$157.76

PnL

+$7.92

Record

53%

7948-7058 (15006)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$56.81

Value

$63.98

PnL

+$7.18

Record

27%

6708-18524 (25232)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$37.35

Value

$35.82

PnL

-$1.53

Record

61%

15629-9929 (25558)

0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060<$100

Invested

$5.5

Value

$5.97

PnL

+$0.47

Record

72%

24736-9849 (34585)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$2.31

Value

$2.67

PnL

+$0.36

Record

30%

2095-4886 (6981)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 62%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$56.93

Max Loss

-$100.00

156.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.