Will the lowest Baton Rouge river level be 3.00 to 3.99 ft by November 30?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 99¢ · $369 held · ends Dec 2

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Dec 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$368.65

Combined PnL

$44.32

Smart Money Entry

86¢ → 99.2¢

+15% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$339.52

Total Shares339

Combined PnL+$72.53

Yes2 traders

Total Value$29.13

Total Shares541

Combined PnL-$28.21

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Mature

37h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 81.8¢	$379.34	$145.72	+$20.68	35% 18692-34699 (53391)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$55.25	$54.89	-$0.37	41% 1142-1647 (2789)
SM smallreceipt	Noavg 97.8¢	$112.32	$54.41	+$0.77	49% 8939-9446 (18385)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 85.5¢	$53.8	$50.01	-$1.65	14% 503-3033 (3536)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 10.8¢	$56.06	$27.19	-$28.87	27% 6972-19073 (26045)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$19.97	$19.87	-$0.1	55% 4477-3683 (8160)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 14¢	$14.67	$14.63	+$53.2	61% 16009-10298 (26307)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$6.3	$1.94	+$0.66	40% 300-442 (742)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$379.34

Value

$145.72

PnL

+$20.68

Record

35%

18692-34699 (53391)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$55.25

Value

$54.89

PnL

-$0.37

Record

41%

1142-1647 (2789)

smallreceipt

Invested

$112.32

Value

$54.41

PnL

+$0.77

Record

49%

8939-9446 (18385)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$53.8

Value

$50.01

PnL

-$1.65

Record

14%

503-3033 (3536)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$56.06

Value

$27.19

PnL

-$28.87

Record

27%

6972-19073 (26045)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$19.97

Value

$19.87

PnL

-$0.1

Record

55%

4477-3683 (8160)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$14.67

Value

$14.63

PnL

+$53.2

Record

61%

16009-10298 (26307)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.3

Value

$1.94

PnL

+$0.66

Record

40%

300-442 (742)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Mature

37h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.