Will the Los Angeles Rams make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 56¢ · $869 held · ends Jan 5, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$869.1
$11.7
56.2¢ → 56.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Late
191h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938 | Noavg 55.2¢ | $439.12 | $448.34 | +$9.39 | 39% 1005-1573 (2578) |
AU auros2 | Noavg 57.8¢ | $224.52 | $219.33 | -$5.19 | 90% 61-7 (68) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Yesavg 46.4¢ | $119.07 | $113.14 | -$5.93 | 41% 2924-4137 (7061) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 46.4¢ | $76.06 | $71.24 | -$4.82 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 58¢ | $43.01 | $41.9 | -$1.11 | |
 TimeTravelerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 39.5¢ | $75.1 | $82.65 | +$7.55 | 19% 15-66 (81) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $5.7 | $5.65 | -$0.05 | 52% 5134-4698 (9832) |
Invested
$439.12
Value
$448.34
PnL
+$9.39
Record
39%
1005-1573 (2578)
Invested
$224.52
Value
$219.33
PnL
-$5.19
Record
90%
61-7 (68)
Invested
$119.07
Value
$113.14
PnL
-$5.93
Record
41%
2924-4137 (7061)
Both legs:
TimeTravelerCTR<$100Invested
$75.1
Value
$82.65
PnL
+$7.55
Record
19%
15-66 (81)
Invested
$5.7
Value
$5.65
PnL
-$0.05
Record
52%
5134-4698 (9832)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.