Will the Los Angeles Chargers make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 97¢ · $4K held · ends Jan 5, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
$3.8K
$2.4K
35.1¢ → 97.4¢
+177% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x53eCc53E7 | Noavg 35¢ | $1.2K | $3.4K | +$2.2K | 43% 470-622 (1092) |
 TimeTraveler | Noavg 36.7¢ | $145.64 | $344.68 | +$199.45 | 41% 2018-2859 (4877) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $69.7 | $51.41 | -$18.29 | 35% 18146-33983 (52129) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.4¢ | $1.66 | $1 | -$0.66 | 58% 19455-14308 (33763) |
Invested
$1,219.42
Value
$3.4K
PnL
+$2.2K
Record
43%
470-622 (1092)
TimeTravelerInvested
$145.64
Value
$344.68
PnL
+$199.45
Record
41%
2018-2859 (4877)
Invested
$69.7
Value
$51.41
PnL
-$18.29
Record
35%
18146-33983 (52129)
Invested
$1.66
Value
$1
PnL
-$0.66
Record
58%
19455-14308 (33763)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.