Will The Life of a Showgirl (Taylor Swift) win Album of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 95¢ · $202 held · ends Feb 7, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$202.27
-$0.44
96.9¢ → 95.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes | Noavg 99.7¢ | $119.64 | $114.6 | -$5.04 | 53% 5727-5123 (10850) |
AU auros2<$100 | Noavg 93.5¢ | $55.05 | $54.95 | +$2.97 | 84% 66-13 (79) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 93.1¢ | $23.7 | $24.3 | +$0.6 | 41% 3127-4493 (7620) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 83.9¢ | $7.4 | $8.42 | +$1.02 | 40% 1457-2158 (3615) |
Invested
$119.64
Value
$114.6
PnL
-$5.04
Record
53%
5727-5123 (10850)
Invested
$55.05
Value
$54.95
PnL
+$2.97
Record
84%
66-13 (79)
Invested
$23.7
Value
$24.3
PnL
+$0.6
Record
41%
3127-4493 (7620)
Invested
$7.4
Value
$8.42
PnL
+$1.02
Record
40%
1457-2158 (3615)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.