Will the Kansas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 64¢ · $821 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$821.17
$72.08
72.3¢ → 63.5¢
-12% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 64%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-15 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Late
615h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 sciuboi | Yesavg 74.5¢ | $538.4 | $495.23 | -$43.17 | 40% 199-298 (497) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Noavg 33.5¢ | $389.59 | $162.88 | +$108.85 | 36% 15508-27510 (43018) |
 bernardbulletin<$100 | Yesavg 65.4¢ | $83.67 | $87.68 | +$4.01 | 69% 983-443 (1426) |
IN insidero<$100 | Yesavg 66¢ | $73.25 | $73.8 | +$2.22 | 76% 287-91 (378) |
0X 0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907eCTR<$100 | Noavg 28¢ | $1.4 | $1.58 | +$0.18 | 78% 266-77 (343) |
sciuboiInvested
$538.4
Value
$495.23
PnL
-$43.17
Record
40%
199-298 (497)
Invested
$389.59
Value
$162.88
PnL
+$108.85
Record
36%
15508-27510 (43018)
bernardbulletin<$100Invested
$83.67
Value
$87.68
PnL
+$4.01
Record
69%
983-443 (1426)
Invested
$73.25
Value
$73.8
PnL
+$2.22
Record
76%
287-91 (378)
Invested
$1.4
Value
$1.58
PnL
+$0.18
Record
78%
266-77 (343)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.