Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 87¢ · $6K held · ends Jul 1, 2027

Yes13¢No87¢Ends Thu, Jul 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$6.2K

Combined PnL

$245.3

Smart Money Entry

83.3¢ → 87¢

+4% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 87%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes13%

No87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$6.2K

Total Shares7,082

Combined PnL+$263.89

Yes2 traders

Total Value$41.66

Total Shares320

Combined PnL-$18.6

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Late

243h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 6

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952	Noavg 86¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$25.9	85% 660-115 (775)
eCash	Noavg 79¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$160	68% 342-161 (503)
VO Votei14Voude22	Noavg 85.4¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$19.23	77% 361-107 (468)
ST stupid22	Noavg 82.5¢	$920.58	$970.29	+$49.71	96% 879-33 (912)
PU PutsOnPeace<$100	Noavg 85¢	$85	$87	+$2	66% 1031-529 (1560)
Talophex<$100	Noavg 80¢	$80	$87	+$7	91% 1039-99 (1138)
0X 0x63C4dCbb199c5eCA30c8a002fF238aAd5DCE4671-1779125900020CTR<$100	Yesavg 19.7¢	$55.2	$36.4	-$18.8	51% 40-39 (79)
AnjunCTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$5.06	$5.26	+$0.2	55% 5484-4526 (10010)
pIebe<$100	Noavg 86¢	$4.3	$4.35	+$0.05	62% 927-565 (1492)

0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952

Invested

$2,227.39

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$25.9

Record

85%

660-115 (775)

eCash

Invested

$1,580

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$160

Record

68%

342-161 (503)

Votei14Voude22

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$19.23

Record

77%

361-107 (468)

stupid22

Invested

$920.58

Value

$970.29

PnL

+$49.71

Record

96%

879-33 (912)

PutsOnPeace<$100

Invested

$85

Value

$87

PnL

+$2

Record

66%

1031-529 (1560)

Talophex<$100

Invested

$80

Value

$87

PnL

+$7

Record

91%

1039-99 (1138)

0x63C4dCbb199c5eCA30c8a002fF238aAd5DCE4671-1779125900020CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$55.2

Value

$36.4

PnL

-$18.8

Record

51%

40-39 (79)

AnjunCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.06

Value

$5.26

PnL

+$0.2

Record

55%

5484-4526 (10010)

pIebe<$100

Invested

$4.3

Value

$4.35

PnL

+$0.05

Record

62%

927-565 (1492)

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 87%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Late

243h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 6

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.5%

87.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.