Will the Iowa 2026 Senate race be within 5%?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 72¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4

Yes72¢No28¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$246.14

Smart Money Entry

59.4¢ → 71.5¢

+20% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes72%

No28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,124

Combined PnL+$246.06

No1 trader

Total Value$1.22

Total Shares4

Combined PnL+$0.08

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Yesavg 70.1¢	$1.5K	$945.35	+$1.13	36% 16083-28096 (44179)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 70.1¢	$568.64	$575.76	-$101.83
└ No leg	Noavg 29.6¢	$377.12	$369.59	+$102.96
sciuboi	Yesavg 72.1¢	$633	$610.13	-$9.71	39% 201-319 (520)
SN SnapElectionAvoider	Yesavg 40.7¢	$303.25	$518.48	+$226.41	53% 1174-1056 (2230)
bernardbulletin	Yesavg 65.1¢	$325.48	$347.33	+$29.35	69% 987-450 (1437)
0X 0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907eCTR<$100	Noavg 28¢	$1.12	$1.22	+$0.08	78% 285-79 (364)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,485.63

Value

$945.35

PnL

+$1.13

Record

36%

16083-28096 (44179)

Both legs:

Yes$568.6470.1¢-$101.83

No$377.1229.6¢+$102.96

sciuboi

Yes

Invested

$633

Value

$610.13

PnL

-$9.71

Record

39%

201-319 (520)

SnapElectionAvoider

Yes

Invested

$303.25

Value

$518.48

PnL

+$226.41

Record

53%

1174-1056 (2230)

bernardbulletin

Yes

Invested

$325.48

Value

$347.33

PnL

+$29.35

Record

69%

987-450 (1437)

0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907eCTR<$100

Invested

$1.12

Value

$1.22

PnL

+$0.08

Record

78%

285-79 (364)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 72%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.3%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.