Will "The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 95m and 105m?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 88¢ · $379 held · ends Nov 22

Yes12¢No88¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$378.65

Combined PnL

$73.4

Smart Money Entry

89.5¢ → 88.1¢

-2% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes12%

No88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$361.81

Total Shares371

Combined PnL-$13.25

Yes2 traders

Total Value$16.85

Total Shares110

Combined PnL+$86.65

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar	Noavg 90.3¢	$148.43	$140.46	-$7.97	55% 25912-21183 (47095)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 84.4¢	$191.72	$78.22	+$8.56	53% 7522-6644 (14166)
0X 0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060<$100	Noavg 92.5¢	$60.15	$55.09	-$5.06	56% 5852-4578 (10430)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 92.3¢	$36.9	$33.9	-$3	60% 7176-4688 (11864)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 85.3¢	$40.66	$29.15	-$4.4	17% 393-1939 (2332)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.2¢	$36	$16.65	+$86.56	35% 16906-31245 (48151)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 88.4¢	$16.07	$15.41	-$0.66	38% 1387-2298 (3685)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 91¢	$9.1	$8.48	-$0.63	43% 5953-7860 (13813)
AH aHjCz<$100	Noavg 92¢	$1.21	$1.11	-$0.09	44% 4014-5074 (9088)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$0.1	$0.2	+$0.09	23% 176-599 (775)

balthazar

Invested

$148.43

Value

$140.46

PnL

-$7.97

Record

55%

25912-21183 (47095)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$191.72

Value

$78.22

PnL

+$8.56

Record

53%

7522-6644 (14166)

0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060<$100

Invested

$60.15

Value

$55.09

PnL

-$5.06

Record

56%

5852-4578 (10430)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$36.9

Value

$33.9

PnL

-$3

Record

60%

7176-4688 (11864)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$40.66

Value

$29.15

PnL

-$4.4

Record

17%

393-1939 (2332)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36

Value

$16.65

PnL

+$86.56

Record

35%

16906-31245 (48151)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$16.07

Value

$15.41

PnL

-$0.66

Record

38%

1387-2298 (3685)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$9.1

Value

$8.48

PnL

-$0.63

Record

43%

5953-7860 (13813)

aHjCz<$100

Invested

$1.21

Value

$1.11

PnL

-$0.09

Record

44%

4014-5074 (9088)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.1

Value

$0.2

PnL

+$0.09

Record

23%

176-599 (775)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.6%

88.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.63

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.