Will "The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 85m and 95m?
8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 89¢ · $285 held · ends Nov 22
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 89%
$285.12
$25.03
89.7¢ → 89¢
-1% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $68.99 | $66.39 | -$2.6 | 55% 25912-21183 (47095) |
0X 0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060<$100 | Noavg 90.8¢ | $59 | $57.53 | -$1.48 | 56% 5852-4578 (10430) |
 Istaroth | Noavg 82.1¢ | $232.05 | $47 | -$20.09 | 17% 393-1939 (2332) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14.3¢ | $80.92 | $44.75 | +$51.33 | 35% 16906-31245 (48151) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 92.7¢ | $37.09 | $35.4 | -$1.69 | 60% 7176-4688 (11864) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $16.18 | $16.09 | -$0.09 | 38% 1387-2298 (3685) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $8.8 | $8.85 | +$0.05 | 50% 7419-7403 (14822) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $8.36 | $7.96 | -$0.4 | 57% 17226-12892 (30118) |
AH aHjCz<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $1.15 | $1.16 | +$0.01 | 44% 4014-5074 (9088) |
balthazar<$100Invested
$68.99
Value
$66.39
PnL
-$2.6
Record
55%
25912-21183 (47095)
Invested
$59
Value
$57.53
PnL
-$1.48
Record
56%
5852-4578 (10430)
IstarothInvested
$232.05
Value
$47
PnL
-$20.09
Record
17%
393-1939 (2332)
Invested
$80.92
Value
$44.75
PnL
+$51.33
Record
35%
16906-31245 (48151)
Invested
$37.09
Value
$35.4
PnL
-$1.69
Record
60%
7176-4688 (11864)
Invested
$16.18
Value
$16.09
PnL
-$0.09
Record
38%
1387-2298 (3685)
Invested
$8.8
Value
$8.85
PnL
+$0.05
Record
50%
7419-7403 (14822)
Invested
$8.36
Value
$7.96
PnL
-$0.4
Record
57%
17226-12892 (30118)
Invested
$1.15
Value
$1.16
PnL
+$0.01
Record
44%
4014-5074 (9088)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.