Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (80%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 21¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes21¢No79¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$-1.1K

Smart Money Entry

40.2¢ → 20.5¢

-49% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 80%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes21%

No80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$842.52

Total Shares1,066

Combined PnL+$6.11

Yes4 traders

Total Value$934.38

Total Shares4,063

Combined PnL$-1.1K

No — 20%Yes — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 72.3¢	$982.74	$842.52	+$6.11	36% 15264-27350 (42614)
0X 0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876CTR	Yesavg 45.5¢	$2.2K	$665.52	$-1.1K	45% 110-133 (243)
SI singularitymanCTR	Yesavg 27¢	$231.4	$196.85	-$51.67	42% 137-192 (329)
LI linethCTR<$100	Yesavg 28.9¢	$76.07	$60.51	-$20.83	41% 243-350 (593)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$10	$11.5	+$1.5	42% 147-200 (347)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$982.74

Value

$842.52

PnL

+$6.11

Record

36%

15264-27350 (42614)

0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,229.73

Value

$665.52

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

45%

110-133 (243)

singularitymanCTR

Yes

Invested

$231.4

Value

$196.85

PnL

-$51.67

Record

42%

137-192 (329)

linethCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$76.07

Value

$60.51

PnL

-$20.83

Record

41%

243-350 (593)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$11.5

PnL

+$1.5

Record

42%

147-200 (347)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 80%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance22.3%

20.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$347.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

447.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.