Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 74¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$1.7K
$168.44
76.8¢ → 74¢
-4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 74%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 vinii | Noavg 74.7¢ | $2.0K | $1.2K | +$156.69 | 74% 2716-975 (3691) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 81.7¢ | $506.95 | $449.2 | +$17.56 | 36% 15157-27275 (42432) |
74 0x7495...7fcf<$100 | Noavg 83.5¢ | $33.4 | $34.6 | +$1.2 | 18% 522-2339 (2861) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 75.3¢ | $30.11 | $24.12 | -$5.99 | 22% 291-1025 (1316) |
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21¢ | $2.84 | $1.82 | -$1.01 | 36% 2035-3639 (5674) |
viniiInvested
$2,029.56
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$156.69
Record
74%
2716-975 (3691)
Invested
$506.95
Value
$449.2
PnL
+$17.56
Record
36%
15157-27275 (42432)
Invested
$33.4
Value
$34.6
PnL
+$1.2
Record
18%
522-2339 (2861)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$30.11
Value
$24.12
PnL
-$5.99
Record
22%
291-1025 (1316)
Invested
$2.84
Value
$1.82
PnL
-$1.01
Record
36%
2035-3639 (5674)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.