Will "The Gospel of Christmas" be the top US Netflix movie this week?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 91¢ · $522 held · ends Nov 18

Yes9¢No91¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

Total Value

$522.38

Combined PnL

$100.87

Smart Money Entry

89.3¢ → 91¢

+2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$516.54

Total Shares549

Combined PnL+$106.23

Yes3 traders

Total Value$5.85

Total Shares106

Combined PnL-$5.36

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DO donthackme	Noavg 89¢	$138.83	$147.41	+$8.58	25% 47-140 (187)
balthazar	Noavg 88.8¢	$158.32	$122.85	+$7.02	43% 5159-6926 (12085)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 89.6¢	$76.15	$80.33	+$4.17	30% 1151-2701 (3852)
TH TheWindKnowsmyName	Noavg 85.8¢	$221.28	$63.46	+$84.04	12% 21-154 (175)
GA Gaditima<$100	Noavg 97¢	$47.51	$45.8	-$1.71	49% 341-352 (693)
GI GingerMcKenna<$100	Noavg 88¢	$35.2	$37.8	+$2.6	28% 9-23 (32)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 90¢	$18.71	$18.9	+$1.53	35% 3858-7089 (10947)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 11.9¢	$209.73	$5.57	-$5.29	38% 3759-6065 (9824)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.8¢	$0.15	$0.2	+$0.05	18% 855-3977 (4832)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$1.1	$0.08	-$0.13	17% 29-146 (175)

donthackme

Invested

$138.83

Value

$147.41

PnL

+$8.58

Record

25%

47-140 (187)

balthazar

Invested

$158.32

Value

$122.85

PnL

+$7.02

Record

43%

5159-6926 (12085)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$76.15

Value

$80.33

PnL

+$4.17

Record

30%

1151-2701 (3852)

TheWindKnowsmyName

Invested

$221.28

Value

$63.46

PnL

+$84.04

Record

12%

21-154 (175)

Gaditima<$100

Invested

$47.51

Value

$45.8

PnL

-$1.71

Record

49%

341-352 (693)

GingerMcKenna<$100

Invested

$35.2

Value

$37.8

PnL

+$2.6

Record

28%

9-23 (32)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$18.71

Value

$18.9

PnL

+$1.53

Record

35%

3858-7089 (10947)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$209.73

Value

$5.57

PnL

-$5.29

Record

38%

3759-6065 (9824)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.15

Value

$0.2

PnL

+$0.05

Record

18%

855-3977 (4832)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.1

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$0.13

Record

17%

29-146 (175)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.4%

91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.