Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (89%). 9 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will "The Gospel of Christmas" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 12¢ · $97 held · ends Nov 18

Yes89¢No11¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 90%

Total Value

$97.47

Combined PnL

$65.46

Research grade

AvoidNo at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 89%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes89%

No12%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$77.17

Total Shares562

Combined PnL+$64.56

Yes1 trader

Total Value$20.3

Total Shares20

Combined PnL+$0.9

No — 90%Yes — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Noavg 14.4¢	$39.67	$27.8	+$20.08	38% 3787-6190 (9977)
GI GingerMcKenna<$100	Yesavg 89¢	$19.4	$20.3	+$0.9	21% 18-66 (84)
TH TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100	Noavg 12.1¢	$85.61	$16.01	+$25.67	17% 34-165 (199)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 12¢	$14.39	$12.04	+$16.83	42% 5200-7083 (12283)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Noavg 11.7¢	$7	$7.2	+$0.2	34% 347-663 (1010)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 9.8¢	$5.44	$6.66	+$1.22	53% 7447-6561 (14008)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Noavg 12¢	$5.4	$5.4	-$0	35% 325-598 (923)
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Noavg 7¢	$0.7	$1.2	+$0.5	31% 1115-2464 (3579)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Noavg 12¢	$0.62	$0.62	+$0	60% 866-583 (1449)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 9¢	$0.18	$0.24	+$0.06	49% 844-877 (1721)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

$39.67

Value

$27.8

PnL

+$20.08

Record

38%

3787-6190 (9977)

GingerMcKenna<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.4

Value

$20.3

PnL

+$0.9

Record

21%

18-66 (84)

TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100

Invested

$85.61

Value

$16.01

PnL

+$25.67

Record

17%

34-165 (199)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$14.39

Value

$12.04

PnL

+$16.83

Record

42%

5200-7083 (12283)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Invested

Value

$7.2

PnL

+$0.2

Record

34%

347-663 (1010)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$5.44

Value

$6.66

PnL

+$1.22

Record

53%

7447-6561 (14008)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Invested

$5.4

Value

$5.4

PnL

-$0

Record

35%

325-598 (923)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Invested

$0.7

Value

$1.2

PnL

+$0.5

Record

31%

1115-2464 (3579)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Invested

$0.62

Value

$0.62

PnL

+$0

Record

60%

866-583 (1449)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$0.18

Value

$0.24

PnL

+$0.06

Record

49%

844-877 (1721)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 89%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance13.0%

11.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$666.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

766.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.