Will the Gävle Goat burn in 2026?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 72¢ · $1K held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$1.4K
$20.61
69.7¢ → 72¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 72%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 smellyEllie | Noavg 71.2¢ | $496.71 | $516.29 | +$19.58 | 50% 937-949 (1886) |
 StarMaster | Noavg 70.7¢ | $296.8 | $310.8 | +$14 | 53% 1833-1612 (3445) |
 GenaTheBondKilIer | Noavg 65.6¢ | $242.03 | $259.98 | +$17.94 | 50% 513-503 (1016) |
 PaddyAlphaCTR | Yesavg 30.7¢ | $323.62 | $198.58 | -$31.95 | 59% 978-672 (1650) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 69.4¢ | $65.2 | $66.27 | +$1.07 | 36% 14857-26971 (41828) |
 NiceDuckBroCTR<$100 | Yesavg 30¢ | $1.5 | $1.47 | -$0.03 | 65% 323-174 (497) |
smellyEllieInvested
$496.71
Value
$516.29
PnL
+$19.58
Record
50%
937-949 (1886)
StarMasterInvested
$296.8
Value
$310.8
PnL
+$14
Record
53%
1833-1612 (3445)
GenaTheBondKilIerInvested
$242.03
Value
$259.98
PnL
+$17.94
Record
50%
513-503 (1016)
PaddyAlphaCTRInvested
$323.62
Value
$198.58
PnL
-$31.95
Record
59%
978-672 (1650)
Invested
$65.2
Value
$66.27
PnL
+$1.07
Record
36%
14857-26971 (41828)
NiceDuckBroCTR<$100Invested
$1.5
Value
$1.47
PnL
-$0.03
Record
65%
323-174 (497)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.