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No
balthazarCTR<$100NoNoYesYes
Istaroth<$100YesYes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was No — but Yes won instead.
Will the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks win the 2026 Japan Series?
Resolved Yes. 43% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
7
No 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$61.57
Smart Money Signal
No
3 of 7 top traders (43%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes100%
No0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares126
Combined PnL-$61.57
Yes4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
No — 43%Yes — 57%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf475402430f3dc9611abeea737fe69dd02f48486CTR<$100 | Noavg 29¢ | $15.19 | — | -$61.57 | 11% 19-161 (180) |
balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 14.1¢ | — | — | +$0 | 61% 20689-13109 (33798) |
KA kaxel78CTR<$100 | Noavg 32¢ | — | — | +$0 | 30% 259-603 (862) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Yesavg 71.2¢ | — | — | +$0 | 32% 4338-9330 (13668) |
ME merod<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 52% 2425-2216 (4641) |
Istaroth<$100 | Yesavg 77.6¢ | — | — | +$0 | 27% 281-776 (1057) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Yesavg 62¢ | — | — | +$0 | 36% 14860-26974 (41834) |
0X
0xf475402430f3dc9611abeea737fe69dd02f48486CTR<$100Invested
$15.19
Value
—
PnL
-$61.57
Record
11%
19-161 (180)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
20689-13109 (33798)
KA
kaxel78CTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
259-603 (862)
0X
0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
32%
4338-9330 (13668)
ME
merod<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
2425-2216 (4641)
Istaroth<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
27%
281-776 (1057)
XT
xtxpleasecallme<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
14860-26974 (41834)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x06227e90...f99e3e
Slug
will-the-fukuoka-softbank-hawks-win-the-2026-japan-series