Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (59%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the Florida Panthers record 100+ points?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 41¢ · $1K held · ends Apr 30, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
1 arb excluded
$1.4K
-$19.47
40.5¢ → 41¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 41%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Late
84h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
4 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 CUTJALENHURTSCTR | Noavg 38.4¢ | $553.69 | $525.97 | -$13.31 | 52% 6156-5779 (11935) |
 AnjunCTR | Noavg 43¢ | $477.73 | $405.52 | -$50 | 55% 5194-4278 (9472) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Yesavg 51.1¢ | $350.83 | $334.44 | +$43.29 | 34% 19423-36974 (56397) |
 HaradwaithARB<$100 | Yesavg 60¢ | $35.83 | $130.29 | -$15.83 | 40% 6572-9858 (16430) |
| └ No leg | No | $95.35 | $95.35 | -$14.93 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 60¢ | $35.83 | $34.94 | -$0.9 | |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 41.7¢ | $17.39 | $15.81 | -$1.58 | 58% 21387-15516 (36903) |
NO northstock<$100 | Yesavg 51.2¢ | $10.25 | $12.7 | +$2.3 | 40% 256-391 (647) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Noavg 45.6¢ | $1.75 | $1.58 | -$0.17 | 17% 396-1984 (2380) |
CUTJALENHURTSCTRInvested
$553.69
Value
$525.97
PnL
-$13.31
Record
52%
6156-5779 (11935)
AnjunCTRInvested
$477.73
Value
$405.52
PnL
-$50
Record
55%
5194-4278 (9472)
Invested
$350.83
Value
$334.44
PnL
+$43.29
Record
34%
19423-36974 (56397)
HaradwaithARB<$100Invested
$35.83
Value
$130.29
PnL
-$15.83
Record
40%
6572-9858 (16430)
Both legs:
Invested
$17.39
Value
$15.81
PnL
-$1.58
Record
58%
21387-15516 (36903)
Invested
$10.25
Value
$12.7
PnL
+$2.3
Record
40%
256-391 (647)
Invested
$1.75
Value
$1.58
PnL
-$0.17
Record
17%
396-1984 (2380)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
41.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.