Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (67%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Federal decree of 19 June 2026 on additional funding for the AVS through an increase in VAT be approved in Switzerland’s November 29, 2026 popular vote?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 33¢ · $630 held · ends Nov 29
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$630.32
$132.93
35.1¢ → 33¢
-6% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 33%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Late
443h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Nadmi | Noavg 38.2¢ | $149.67 | $306.49 | +$156.82 | 47% 2036-2277 (4313) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 24.3¢ | $96.77 | $153.03 | +$56.26 | 36% 16042-28051 (44093) |
 EsperanzasDESTROYERCTR | Yesavg 50.4¢ | $184.84 | $137.39 | -$47.45 | 57% 47-36 (83) |
CB Cbs710CTR<$100 | Yesavg 52.6¢ | $58.25 | $26.81 | -$31.44 | 75% 108-36 (144) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 78.5¢ | $7.9 | $6.6 | -$1.26 | 18% 364-1623 (1987) |
NadmiInvested
$149.67
Value
$306.49
PnL
+$156.82
Record
47%
2036-2277 (4313)
Invested
$96.77
Value
$153.03
PnL
+$56.26
Record
36%
16042-28051 (44093)
EsperanzasDESTROYERCTRInvested
$184.84
Value
$137.39
PnL
-$47.45
Record
57%
47-36 (83)
Invested
$58.25
Value
$26.81
PnL
-$31.44
Record
75%
108-36 (144)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$7.9
Value
$6.6
PnL
-$1.26
Record
18%
364-1623 (1987)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
33.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.